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China data keeps the world guessing

2016年 10月 19日 Wednesday - 01:55

Asian shares rose as a barrage of Chinese data confirmed the economy had stabilised on the back of government spending and a hot housing market. David Pollard looks at what it means for the global economy.

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At 6.7 per cent for yet another quarter, Chinese growth this year is likely to be the lowest in quarter of a century. But hitting that rate three times in a row - right in line with official targets - some see as almost too good to be true. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CMC MARKETS ANALYST, MICHAEL HEWSON, SAYING: "All in all a fairly underwhelming report, but does any of the data assuage concerns about rising levels of debt in the Chinese economy? I don't think so ..." At 250% of GDP, China's debt prompted the Bank of International Settlements to warn of a looming banking crisis. A potential bubble in property another danger sign. But an even bigger question hangs over China's global trade. September imports down 1.9 per cent year-on-year - exports down 10 per cent. Despite a currency at six-year lows - and, some would say, held there. (SOUNDBITE) (English) KATHLEEN BROOKS, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, CITY INDEX, SAYING: "We're seeing a real decline in the value of the Chinese RMB versus the dollar. Now that is to be expected, because we have seen that huge rise in the dollar of late. However, we do think that possibly there is an official intention to keep the currency weak, which will continue to benefit exporters." Exporters in China that is ... European exporters reliant on a cheap euro seeing their prospects cool ... Even as the debate over whether the ECB will wind down or 'taper' its quantitative easing programme heats up. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CMC MARKETS ANALYST, MICHAEL HEWSON, SAYING: "I think that's highly unlikely despite the fact that we've seen CPI inflation in Europe at its highest levels since November 2014. Ultimately, the European economy still remains fairly weak." As for the Fed, an easing in US inflation has seen some investors trim their dollar bets. But many investors still see a hike in December. Barring any upsets in the US presidential election race ... ... or an economic shock from Asia.

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China data keeps the world guessing

2016年 10月 19日 Wednesday - 01:55